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Table 3 Effects of climatic/ environmental factors and interventions on parasitaemia prevalence in children aged 5–14 years

From: The influence of malaria control interventions and climate variability on changes in the geographical distribution of parasite prevalence in Kenya between 2015 and 2020

Predictors

2015

2020

OR (95% BCI)

aOR (95% BCI)

OR (95% BCI)

aOR (95% BCI)

Climatic/environmental factors

    

Rainfall

2.94 (1.48,5.75)*

1.46 (1.04,2.05)*

0.88 (0.44,1.77)

1.32 (0.68,2.55)

Day LST

1.04 (0.54,2.01)

 

1.18 (0.65,2.10)

 

Night LST

5.25 (2.43,11.19)*

1.35 (0.68,2.74)

1.50 (0.70,3.18)

 

NDVI, 0.13–0.47

1

 

1

 

0.48–0.60

2.55 (0.88,7.12)

 

0.84 (0.34,2.04)

 

0.61–0.78

0.99 (0.33,2.88)

 

1.91 (0.78,4.62)

 

Nightlights

0.26 (0.08,0.84)*

0.16 (0.06,0.43)*

0.69 (0.45,1.00)*

0.73 (0.47,1.12)

Altitude

0.35 (0.16,0.77)*

 

0.37 (0.15,0.86)*

0.35 (0.15,0.76)*

Altitude, 5–1189 m

1

 

1

 

 1190–1749

1.16 (0.54,2.55)

1.11 (0.57,2.2)

0.67 (0.34,1.34)

 

 1750–2990

0.29 (0.11,0.81)*

0.43 (0.15,1.27)

0.31 (0.10,0.95)*

 

Distance to permanent water

0.32 (0.12,0.80)*

0.75 (0.38,1.57)

0.57 (0.25,1.30)

 

Crop cover

1.46 (0.68,3.15)

 

1.71 (0.92,3.19)

 

Interventions

    

Proportion of households with at least one ITN

2.08 (1.10,3.86)*

1.93 (1.13,3.28)*

1.28 (0.87,1.88)

 

Proportion of households with at least one ITN for every two people

0.54 (0.36,0.79)*

 

0.89 (0.67,1.18)

 

Proportion of individuals with access to an ITN in their household

0.58 (0.33,0.99)*

 

0.73 (0.52,1.03)

 

Proportion of individuals that slept under an ITN the previous night

1.33 (0.71,2.38)

 

0.64 (0.45,0.91)*

0.59 (0.42,0.84)*

Proportion of children under 5 years old who slept under an ITN

0.76 (0.45,1.38)

 

1.07 (0.81,1.42)

 

Proportion of existing ITNs used the previous night

2.71 (1.53,4.81)*

 

0.70 (0.50,0.98)*

 

ACT use

1.67 (1.21,2.38)*

1.27 (0.96,1.71)

1.34 (1.14,1.57)*

1.29 (1.1,1.51)*

Mixing proportion

 

0.29 (0.02,0.94)

 

0.22 (0.01,0.84)

Spatial variance

 

6.41 (1.19,17.5)

 

5.48 (2.43,10.44)

Range (km)

 

4.42 (1.79,8.23)

 

131.68 (76.44,210.49)

DIC

 

488.67

 

665.19

  1. *Statistically important